Europe’s Missing Role in the Middle East Is Beginning to Appear

R.M. Westerink; September 1, 2026 

When the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation recently condemned the US-Israeli war against Iran, their statement appeared to confirm a familiar geopolitical development. American influence is being challenged while China, Russia and Iran promote a more multipolar international order.[1]

There is substance to that interpretation. Iran has found within the SCO an institutional environment receptive to its criticism of Western military intervention, sanctions and political dominance.

Looking at the Middle East itself, however, reveals another development. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and the Gulf states are expanding their own diplomatic and security relationships. Pakistan has become an important diplomatic participant. Qatar and Oman continue to provide mediation channels across difficult regional divides.

These countries have different interests and alliances. What increasingly connects them is a desire for greater room to determine regional affairs themselves.

Between the established American pole and the increasingly visible SCO pole, a strategic middle is beginning to appear.

And Europe appears to be moving closer to it.

American Predominance Is Changing

The United States remains the Middle East’s most important external military power.
Its relationships with Israel and the Gulf states remain substantial, its military infrastructure is extensive, and American diplomacy continues to play a central role.

What is changing is the assumption that American leadership will remain the principal organising force of the regional order.

The recent conflict with Iran demonstrated the risks of dependence particularly clearly. Regional governments found themselves exposed to decisions taken in Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem while having limited influence over them.

Their response has increasingly been diversification.

Saudi Arabia has expanded its relationship with China while maintaining close relations with Washington. The UAE similarly works across geopolitical divisions. Türkiye remains a NATO member while pursuing an increasingly autonomous regional policy. Qatar and Oman maintain channels with Iran alongside strong Western relationships.

The United States therefore remains important, but regional states are creating more room to manoeuvre around it.

The SCO Offers Another Pole

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation represents another direction in which the international system is developing.

China provides enormous economic weight.
Russia adds military and geopolitical power.
Iran has become increasingly integrated into this political environment.
Together with India, Pakistan and the Central Asian members, the SCO covers a substantial part of Eurasia.

Its political vocabulary increasingly emphasizes multipolarity, sovereignty, opposition to unilateral sanctions and reform of international institutions.

For Iran, this environment is attractive. The SCO condemnation of the US-Israeli attack allows Tehran to place its confrontation with Washington and Israel within a broader argument about international legitimacy and the future global order.[1]

The SCO nevertheless contains very different strategic interests. India maintains important relationships with the United States, Europe, Israel and the Gulf and pursues its own strategic autonomy.

Middle Eastern governments face a similar calculation. Greater distance from Washington does not automatically imply closer alignment with Beijing, Moscow and Tehran. For countries seeking room for independent action, exchanging one dominant relationship for another offers limited attraction.

This leaves space for a third development.

The Emerging Middle

Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar and Oman do not constitute a political bloc. Their policies towards Iran and Israel differ, as do their security interests.

Yet their recent behaviour increasingly reflects a common search for greater regional agency.

Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have strengthened their political and security cooperation. Their Makkah Agreement framework now includes a Strategic Political and Defence Committee and a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia; the three governments explicitly describe their cooperation in terms of “regional ownership”.[2]
Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan have also developed the R4 consultation mechanism, reaffirming continued coordination on peace, security and stability in the Middle East.[3]

Pakistan has played a mediation role between the United States and Iran, a role explicitly commended by the EU.[4] Qatar and Oman continue to perform specialised mediation roles because they retain communication channels across competing camps.

These arrangements do not yet form a new regional alliance. They resemble a network in which different states bring different capabilities.

Saudi Arabia contributes financial resources and growing Arab and Gulf political weight. Türkiye combines military capacity with relationships extending into NATO, Europe, Iran and the Gulf. Egypt remains one of the Arab world’s central political powers. Pakistan adds strategic capacity and connections into South Asia. Qatar and Oman provide unusual diplomatic access.

Different combinations can address different problems.

The emerging common denominator is strategic autonomy: greater capacity for regional countries to manage regional affairs while maintaining relationships with several outside powers.

Europe Appears to Have Noticed

Several months ago, in Europe Needs Its Own Middle East Strategy, it was argued that Europe could no longer simply outsource its Middle Eastern strategy to Washington.[A]

Developments since then suggest that Europe itself has been moving in that direction.

The European Commission has created a dedicated Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf (DG-MENA, headed by Dubravka Šuica ). Its stated purpose is to build partnerships based on mutual interest and bring together the EU’s technical and financial instruments.[5] Kaja Kallas’s formal responsibilities also include development of an EU Middle East Strategy.[6]

Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council increasingly include regional security alongside their established economic dimension. In July, EU foreign ministers emphasized close coordination with Gulf partners and held an EU-GCC High-Level Forum on regional security and cooperation.[7]

European engagement with individual regional powers is also becoming more strategic.

EU relations with Pakistan have included explicit recognition of its mediation efforts between the United States and Iran.[4] One European meeting was particularly illustrative: Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar joined EU foreign ministers for discussions about the Middle East. Kallas described both countries as important because of their extensive diplomatic engagement across the region and asked what more could be done together.[8]

Saudi Arabia is becoming an increasingly important centre of regional political activity. India has substantial relationships with Europe, the Gulf, Israel, the United States and Iran while maintaining its own strategic independence. Bringing both into a European Middle East discussion reflects a diplomatic environment built around overlapping relationships rather than fixed blocs.

Individually, these developments can be seen as normal diplomatic activity. Together, they suggest that Europe is positioning itself within the changing regional landscape.

Building Strategic Friendships

This emerging environment may fit European capabilities and purposes unusually well.

Many of the countries seeking greater regional autonomy are themselves building multiple relationships. Saudi Arabia can cooperate with Europe, America and China. Türkiye combines NATO membership with an independent Middle Eastern role. India works closely with Europe and the Gulf without becoming part of a European alliance. Qatar and Oman combine strong Western relationships with diplomatic access to Iran.

Europe is developing relationships within this same network.

Its contribution is broader than traditional security guarantees. Europe brings economic scale, investment, trade, technology, reconstruction capacity, regulatory expertise and extensive diplomatic networks. It also maintains working relationships with almost every significant actor in the region.

This creates the possibility of strategic partnership without requiring exclusive alignment.

India reinforces that character. European and Indian participation alongside regionally owned initiatives would provide substantial external support while leaving Middle Eastern countries at the centre of their own developing architecture.

Europe’s Missing Role [B]

This gives a broader meaning to the idea that Europe needs its own Middle East strategy.

Greater European strategic autonomy allows Europe to develop relationships based on its own interests while supporting a Middle East in which regional countries themselves assume greater responsibility.

That role does not require Europe to reproduce American predominance or compete with China for regional leadership. It is closer to becoming a substantial external partner for countries seeking greater room to manage their own regional order.

The relationship can work precisely because those countries also value autonomy.
Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar, Oman and the UAE increasingly maintain several strategic relationships simultaneously. Pakistan and India extend that network beyond the region.

Europe’s role within such an environment depends less on organising it than on becoming a useful and trusted participant.

An Order Taking Shape

The Middle East is not moving neatly from one geopolitical order to another.

American predominance is weakening while American power remains substantial. China, Russia and Iran are developing an increasingly visible alternative environment around the SCO. Between them, Middle Eastern powers are expanding their own diplomatic and security relationships.

This emerging middle remains diverse and loosely connected. Its countries will continue to disagree and will cooperate with Washington, Beijing and others whenever their interests require it. That flexibility may itself become an important characteristic of regional strategic autonomy.

Europe’s response is also still developing. DG MENA, the forthcoming EU Middle East Strategy, stronger EU-GCC security cooperation and increasingly strategic relationships with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, India and others do not yet amount to a single European doctrine.

But they reveal a direction.

When Europe Needs Its Own Middle East Strategy was written, Europe’s missing role was principally an argument about what Europe needed to develop.

Today, the picture is becoming more concrete. Middle Eastern powers are creating greater room to determine their own affairs, while Europe is building relationships with many of the countries driving that change.

Europe’s missing role in the Middle East may no longer be missing. It may simply still be taking shape.

References

[1] Mehr News Agency, “SCO leaders slam US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran,” 1 September 2026. https://en.mehrnews.com/news/247377/SCO-leaders-slam-US-Israeli-war-of-aggression-against-Iran

[2] Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Strategic Political and Defence Committee of the Makkah Agreement for Joint Defence, Joint Statement,” 31 August 2026. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/strategic-political-and-defence-committee-of-the-makkah-agreement-for-joint-defence--joint-statement--31-august-2026.en.mfa

[3] Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement of the R4 Following the Fourth Consultative Meeting of the Foreign Ministers,” 21 June 2026. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/joint-statement-of-the-r4-following-the-fourth-consultative-meeting-of-the-foreign-ministers-21-june-2026.en.mfa

[4] European External Action Service, “Joint Press Communiqué: Eighth Round of the European Union-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue,” 1 June 2026. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/joint-press-communiqu%C3%A9-eighth-round-european-union-pakistan-strategic-dialogue-1-june-2026_en

[5] European Commission, “Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf — Directorate-General (DG MENA).” https://commission.europa.eu/about/departments-and-executive-agencies/middle-east-north-africa-and-gulf_en

[6] European Commission, “Kaja Kallas — High Representative/Vice-President: Responsibilities.” https://commission.europa.eu/about/organisation/college-commissioners/kaja-kallas_en

[7] Council of the European Union, “Foreign Affairs Council,” 13 July 2026. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2026/07/13/

[8] European External Action Service, “Informal meeting of Foreign Affairs Ministers (Gymnich): Press conference by High Representative Kaja Kallas,” 28 May 2026. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/informal-meeting-foreign-affairs-ministers-gymnich-press-conference-high-representative-kaja-kallas_en

 

[A] Europe Needs Its Own Middle East Strategy. https://europe-is-us.blogspot.com/2026/06/europe-needs-its-own-middle-east.html

[B] Europe's Missing Role in the Middle East. https://europe-is-us.blogspot.com/2026/06/europes-missing-role-in-middle-east.html