Monday, May 11, 2026

A Western Pivot Moment Opens in its relationship with Israel.

Where Netanyahu-Trump relationship has soured and US’ and Europe’s voters increasingly doubt sustaining Israel’s Violence.

Summary

Four developments crystallize a historic pivot in Western relations with Israel:

1. Netanyahu’s admission that Israel must "draw down to zero" US military aid, revealing the fragility of Western enablement [1,2].

2. Trump’s frustration at being "lured" into a prolonged Iran war, exposing the costs of unconditional support for Israel’s regional ambitions [3,4].

3. The EU’s fracturing consensus, as member states and civil society demand accountability for Israel’s violations of international law [5,6].

4. The historically unconditional US support for Israel is fracturing, with Senate debates over blocking arms sales and 80% of Democrats holding a negative view of Israel, signaling a structural shift [8,9].

This moment demands a Western drive from perpetual escalation to de-escalation of the conflict, as outlined in The Achievable Road to Real Peace: Accepting Origin-of-Conflict Culpability [7].
It requires accepting historic responsibility for both the Cause-of-Conflict (colonial and ideological foundations) and Sustaining (military, diplomatic, and economic enablement) roles.

1. The Trigger: Netanyahu’s Gambit and the Unraveling of Western Enablement

Netanyahu’s May 2026 announcement that Israel would "draw down to zero the American financial support" over the next decade was not just a policy shift—it was an admission of vulnerability [1,2]. For the first time, Israel’s leadership publicly acknowledged that the old model of Western enablement is unsustainable.

Why Now?

· Eroding US Support: Pew Research data shows 60% of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, with 59% expressing little or no confidence in Netanyahu. Among Democrats, negative views have soared to 80%, driven by outrage over Gaza, the Iran war, and Israel’s defiance of US requests for restraint [8].

· Fear of Conditionality: The US Senate has debated blocking arms sales to Israel, and progressive lawmakers are increasingly vocal about tying aid to compliance with international law [9]. Netanyahu’s urgency reflects a desire to preempt such leverage by reducing dependence on Washington.

· Pivot to the Gulf: Israel is deepening ties with Gulf states, who share its Iran concerns. Yet, these alliances are transactional and cannot replace the diplomatic and military cover the US has historically provided [1,2].

· Netanyahu’s gambit is a tacit acknowledgment that the Sustaining role of the West is no longer guaranteed. Israel is racing to diversify its alliances before the US and EU impose restrictions tied to human rights or international law.

2. Trump’s Iran War: The Cost of Unconditional Support

President Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching strikes against Iran in February 2026 was sold as a swift, decisive campaign. Instead, it has become a prolonged, unpopular war that has exposed the flaws in the US-Israel relationship [3,4].

The Lure and the Trap

· Netanyahu’s Role: Israeli leaders lobbied aggressively for the strikes, even as Omani-mediated talks neared a potential breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump, eager for a foreign policy win, agreed—only to find himself trapped in a conflict with no clear endgame [3,4].

· Public Backlash: Polling in February 2026 showed only 21% of Americans supported strikes on Iran, with 49% viewing them as unnecessary and expensive [10]. Trump’s erratic messaging—from demanding Iran’s "unconditional surrender" to suddenly entertaining ceasefire proposals—reveals a leadership in disarray [3,4].

· War Fatigue: Trump’s frustration at being "lured" into the conflict is palpable. His profane social media rants and mixed signals underscore a growing realization: the war has become a political liability, especially as the 2026 midterms approach [3,4].

The Broader Implications

Trump’s Iran war has accelerated the unraveling of the US-Israel special relationship. For decades, the US has sustained Israel’s conflicts through military aid, diplomatic cover, and vetoes at the UN. Now, with bipartisan support for Israel at a historic low, the Sustaining role of the US is under direct challenge [8,9].

3. The US and EU’s Awakening: From Rhetoric to Accountability

The US: A Shifting Political Landscape

· Bipartisan Erosion: The historically unconditional US support for Israel is fracturing. The Senate’s debate over blocking arms sales and the 80% negative view of Israel among Democrats signal a structural shift [8,9].

· Conditionality as Leverage: Progressive lawmakers and activists are tying military aid to compliance with international law, forcing Israel to confront the consequences of its actions [9].

The EU: Legal and Moral Pressure

· Legal Reckoning: The International Court of Justice’s 2024 advisory opinion on Israel’s occupation, ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, and the EU’s internal reviews have confirmed grave violations of international law in Gaza and the West Bank [5,6].

· Civil Society’s Role: A European Citizens’ Initiative with over 1 million signatures is forcing the issue onto the EU agenda, while Hungary’s new leadership has pledged to respect ICC warrants for Netanyahu’s arrest. Germany, once Israel’s staunchest defender, is now increasingly isolated [5,6].

· Economic Leverage: The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner, with a relationship worth over €45 billion annually. Suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement—or even threatening to do so—would send a powerful signal that Europe is no longer willing to sustain conflict through economic and political support [5,6].

4. The Pivot: From Ever-Escalating to De-Escalation

The current moment demands a fundamental shift from perpetual escalation to de-escalation. As argued in The Achievable Road to Real Peace: Accepting Origin-of-Conflict Culpability, the only path to real peace is for the West to force Israel to confront its historical and ideological roots in the conflict [7].

The Achievable Road to Real Peace

· Acknowledge Culpability: The West must recognize its own Cause-of-Conflict role (colonial decisions like the Balfour Declaration and UN Partition Plan) and its own Cause-of-Sustaining role (military aid, diplomatic cover, economic ties) [7].

· Apply Pressure: Sanctions, conditionality, and legal action must be used to force Israel to comply with international law and end its perpetual war doctrine [7].

· Reimagine Solutions: A just peace requires ending apartheid, recognizing Palestinian statehood, and addressing refugee rights—not as concessions, but as necessary correctives to a century of injustice [7].

5. The Western Pivot: Adopting Own Culpability and Taking Responsibility

· The convergence of Netanyahu’s gambit, Trump’s frustration, and the US’ and EU’s shift creates a unique opportunity to expose and dismantle the Western Roles.

The tools are already in place:

· US: Conditionality on military aid, tying it to human rights compliance and progress toward Palestinian statehood [8,9].

· EU: Suspension of the Association Agreement, enforcement of ICC warrants, and recognition of Palestinian statehood [5,6].

· Legal Action: Sanctions on Israeli officials, arms embargos, and support for ICJ/ICC investigations [5,6].

· The Western pivot is not just about ending support for Israel’s occupation. It is about recognizing that the broader conflict cannot be resolved without addressing its roots—with their own Cause-of-Conflict role that created it and their Sustaining role that has perpetuated it.

6. The Stakes

· For Israel: Isolation or reckoning. Without Western support, Israel may be helped to confront its own Zionist Cause-of-Conflict role—or face regional and global consequences [1,2,7].

· For the US and EU: Moral consistency or continued complicity. The choice is between upholding international law and perpetuating a system of oppression [8,9,5,6].

· For the Middle East: Peace or Perpetual War. The Western pivot could break the cycle of violence—or entrench it further [7].

Summary of Findings

The Western pivot is not just about acknowledging past mistakes—it is about ending ongoing complicity. The Western roles as Cause-of-Conflict (colonial decisions, Zionist ideology) and as Cause-of-Sustaining (military aid, diplomatic cover, economic ties) have fueled a century of violence. The 2026 moment—with its fraying alliances, political shifts, and legal pressure—offers a rare chance to pivot.

The path forward is clear:

5. Acknowledge Culpability: The West must recognize its role in creating and sustaining the conflict [7].

6. Apply Pressure: Sanctions, conditionality, and legal action must be used to force Israel to comply with international law [5,6,8,9].

7. Reimagine Solutions: A just peace requires ending apartheid, recognizing Palestinian statehood, and addressing refugee rights [7].

The achievable road to real peace begins with Western accountability. The question is: Will the US and EU finally take it?

References

1. CBS News. (2026, May 10). Netanyahu wants Israel "to draw down to zero the American financial support".

2. Bloomberg. (2026, May 10). Netanyahu Tells CBS He Wants to Phase Out US Funding for Israel.

3. Wikipedia. (2026). 2026 Iran war.

4. Al Jazeera. (2026, May 6). Trump says war will be ‘over quickly’ as Iran reviews US peace proposal.

5. Euronews. (2026, April 21). Europe’s relationship with Israel is fracturing—how far will it go?

6. Middle East Monitor. (2026, April 29). The pendulum swings: The slow death of Europe’s pro-Israel consensus.

7. Westerink, R.M. (2026, May). The Achievable Road to Real Peace: Accepting Origin-of-Conflict Culpability. Europe-is-US. https://europe-is-us.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-achievable-road-to-real-peace.html

8. Pew Research Center. (2026, April 7). Negative views of Israel, Netanyahu continue to rise among Americans.

9. Mondoweiss. (2026, April 27). Latest polling paints dire picture for Israel in U.S. politics.

10. Arab Center Washington DC. (2026, May 7). The US-Israel War on Iran: Analyses and Perspectives.

The Achievable Road to Real Peace: Accepting Origin-of-Conflict Culpability

Why the West Must Confront Its Role to Break the Cycle of Eternal War

The Eternal War Trap

Israel’s leadership has long operated under a paradox: while publicly pursuing "victory" over Palestinian and regional resistance, its actions suggest an acceptance of eternal confrontation. Statements like "mowing the grass"—a euphemism for periodic military campaigns to suppress Hamas or Hezbollah—reveal a strategy not of resolution, but of perpetual management. Each cycle of violence weakens Israel’s adversaries temporarily, but the roots of resistance—the Nakba, occupation, and unaddressed grievances—ensure they regrow stronger. Meanwhile, Israel’s asymmetric military advantage, while formidable, is not infinite. As adversaries adapt, the cost of maintaining this edge—in lives, resources, and global standing—becomes unsustainable.

The reverse of continuous escalation is continuous de-escalation. But this requires confronting the origin of the conflict—a step Israel cannot take alone. The responsibility, and the power, to force this reckoning lies exclusively with the United States and Europe.

The Pivot: Origin-of-Conflict Culpability

To break the cycle, the West must acknowledge its dual role in creating and perpetuating the conflict: historical actions that laid the foundation for dispossession, and ideological enablement of a political project that prioritized Jewish statehood over Palestinian rights. Only by accepting this culpability can the US and EU leverage their unique influence to push Israel toward a just and lasting peace.

A. Western Historical Culpability: The Colonial Roots

The conflict did not begin in 1948 or 1967. It began with European colonial decisions that treated Palestine as a blank slate for Jewish settlement, ignoring its existing population.

The Balfour Declaration (1917) promised a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine without consulting the Arab majority, who made up 90% of the population at the time. This was not an oversight—it was a deliberate choice to prioritize European Jewish aspirations over Palestinian self-determination.
The UN Partition Plan (1947) proposed giving 55% of Palestine to a Jewish state, despite Jews owning 7% of the land and comprising 30% of the population. The plan was rejected by Palestinians as fundamentally unjust. When war followed, 700,000+ Palestinians were expelled or fled in what they call the Nakba ("catastrophe"). The West not only failed to prevent this displacement but enabled it through diplomatic and later military support.
Post-1948, the pattern continued. The US and Europe armed, funded, and shielded Israel from accountability, even as it expanded its territory through war (1967) and settlements (ongoing). The Oslo Accords of the 1990s, hailed as a peace process, instead entrenched occupation by allowing Israel to control the West Bank and Gaza while negotiations dragged on indefinitely.

Today, the West still enables the status quo. The US provides $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel, while the EU maintains lucrative trade deals despite Israel’s violation of international law—from settlement expansion to the blockade of Gaza. When the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 2024 that Israel’s occupation amounts to apartheid, and when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants in 2025 for Israeli leaders, the US and key EU states resisted enforcement, prioritizing political alliances over justice.

The message to Israel has been clear: There are no consequences for perpetuating the conflict.

B. Zionist Ideological Culpability: The Engine of Perpetual Confrontation

Zionism, as a political movement, emerged as a response to European antisemitism and the need for a Jewish homeland. But from its inception, it carried internal tensions—between liberation and colonization, between democracy and exclusivity—that have fueled the conflict.

Exclusionary State-Building: Early Zionist leaders like Theodor Herzl envisioned a Jewish state but largely ignored the Palestinian population. Others, like David Ben-Gurion, were explicit about the need to remove Palestinians to secure a Jewish majority. In 1937, Ben-Gurion wrote: "The Arabs will have to go, but one needs an opportune moment for making it happen, such as a war." This was not fringe thinking—it became policy. Plan Dalet (1948), the military blueprint for Israel’s creation, included the forced expulsion of Palestinians from their villages.
The "Iron Wall" Doctrine: In 1923, Vladimir Jabotinsky, the intellectual father of Revisionist Zionism, argued that Zionism could only succeed behind an "Iron Wall" of military force, as Palestinians would never accept Jewish statehood voluntarily. This doctrine normalized perpetual confrontation as a strategic necessity. Today, it manifests in policies like "mowing the grass"—Israel’s strategy of periodically bombing Gaza to weaken Hamas, knowing full well that the group will regenerate, ensuring endless cycles of violence.
Institutionalized Inequality: Israel’s Nation-State Law (2018) legally enshrines Jewish supremacy, declaring that only Jews have the right to self-determination in Israel. In the West Bank, two separate legal systems operate: Israeli civil law for Jewish settlers, and military law for Palestinians. Leading human rights organizations—Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Israel’s own B’Tselem—have all concluded that this amounts to apartheid.

The result is a state that cannot achieve peace because its founding ideology and policies require the subjugation of Palestinians. And because the West has enabled this system, Israel has no incentive to change.

Why This Matters Now

The status quo is unsustainable—for Israelis, Palestinians, and the West itself.

For Israel: The erosion of its asymmetric advantage is inevitable. As adversaries like Hezbollah and Iran develop more sophisticated weapons, Israel’s military edge will continue to shrink. Meanwhile, demographic trends (Palestinians will soon outnumber Jews between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean) threaten Israel’s ability to maintain a Jewish majority without resorting to apartheid or mass expulsion.
For the West: Unconditional support for Israel undermines Western credibility. The US and EU condemn Russia’s occupation of Ukraine but enable Israel’s occupation of Palestine. This double standard fuels anti-Western sentiment in the Global South and radicalizes a new generation of Arabs and Muslims. At home, it alienates progressive voters—especially young people—who see the hypocrisy and demand change.
For Palestinians: The human cost is staggering. Since 2008, Israel has launched eight major military operations in Gaza, killing tens of thousands of civilians. The blockade of Gaza—now in its 17th year—has created a humanitarian crisis that the UN warns is unlivable. In the West Bank, settler violence and land seizures have reached record highs, with no accountability.

The only way out is for the US and EU to use their leverage to force Israel to confront its Origin-of-Conflict Culpability—and pivot toward peace.

The Roadmap to Real Peace

Breaking the cycle requires three steps:

1. Acknowledge Culpability

The US and EU must publicly recognize their role in creating and sustaining the conflict. This means:

Acknowledging the Nakba and the dispossession of Palestinians as a direct result of Western decisions (Balfour Declaration, UN Partition Plan, post-1948 support).
Rejecting the conflation of Zionism with Judaism, which has been used to silence criticism of Israel. Anti-Zionism is not inherently antisemitic—it is a political position that opposes a specific nationalist ideology, just as one can oppose Hindu nationalism in India or white nationalism in the US without hating Hindus or whites.
Condemning apartheid: The US and EU must formally recognize Israel’s policies in the West Bank and Gaza as apartheid, in line with Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B’Tselem.

2. Apply Pressure

The West must make continued support for Israel conditional on concrete steps toward peace and justice. This includes:

Military Aid Conditionality: The US should freeze or reduce military aid if Israel continues settlement expansion, home demolitions, or collective punishment (e.g., blockade of Gaza).
Targeted Sanctions: The EU and US should sanction Israeli officials and entities involved in human rights violations, such as:

Settler leaders and organizations responsible for violence against Palestinians.
Israeli politicians advocating for annexation or apartheid policies.
Companies profiting from the occupation (e.g., those building settlements or supplying weapons used in Gaza).

Diplomatic Isolation: The US and EU should support UN resolutions critical of Israel, end vetoes at the Security Council, and downgrade diplomatic ties if Israel refuses to comply with international law.
Legal Accountability: The US and EU should cooperate with the ICC and enforce ICJ rulings, including arrest warrants for Israeli leaders accused of war crimes.

3. Reimagine Solutions

The traditional two-state solution is no longer viable due to Israel’s settlement expansion and fragmentation of Palestinian territory. Instead, the focus should be on one democratic state with equal rights for all, or a confederation that allows for shared governance while respecting national identities. Key principles:

Right of Return: Palestinians displaced in 1948 and their descendants must have the right to return or receive compensation, as guaranteed by UN Resolution 194.
Equal Citizenship: In any political arrangement, all residents—Jews and Palestinians—must have equal rights, including voting, freedom of movement, and access to resources.
Ending Occupation: Israel must withdraw from the West Bank and East Jerusalem, dismantle settlements, and end the blockade of Gaza.
Regional Integration: A just resolution must include regional guarantees, such as security arrangements and economic cooperation, to ensure lasting stability.

The Urgency of Now

The window for action is closing. The longer the West enables Israel’s eternal war, the more entrenched the conflict becomes. But there are signs of change:

Public Opinion Shifts: In the US, younger voters—especially Democrats—are increasingly critical of Israel’s policies. A 2025 Gallup poll found that 55% of Americans under 30 believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute war crimes.
European Leadership: Countries like Ireland, Spain, and Norway have recognized Palestinian statehood, while the EU Parliament has passed resolutions condemning Israel’s occupation.
Legal Momentum: The ICJ’s 2024 advisory opinion and ICC’s 2025 arrest warrants have emboldened global accountability efforts.

But words are not enough. The US and EU must act—not out of hostility to Israel, but out of a commitment to peace, justice, and their own values.

A Call to Action

Real peace is not a Palestinian or Israeli responsibility alone—it is a Western one. The US and EU have the power to force a pivot. The question is whether they have the will.

For American readers: Your government funds this conflict with your tax dollars. Demand that your representatives condition military aid on human rights compliance and support diplomatic solutions that prioritize equality and justice.

For European readers: Your governments trade with and arm Israel while it violates international law. Push for sanctions, divestment, and political pressure to hold Israel accountable.

The Origin-of-Conflict Culpability is not just a historical footnote. It is the pivot upon which the future of the region turns. The West can continue enabling eternal war, or it can finally choose the road to real peace.

The choice is yours. The time is now.