WE ARE EUROPE - Keeping Europe European: The Threat From Outside

 

R.M. Westerink; August 2026 

The World Around Europe Has Changed

The European model developed under unusually favorable external conditions. American power underwrote much of our security. International trade expanded. Russia became an economic partner after the Cold War. China became a manufacturing center and huge market. Europe could concentrate on prosperity and integration while spending comparatively little on military security.

That environment is changing. Russia has returned large-scale interstate war to Europe. China combines enormous economic importance with strategic power. The United States remains Europe's indispensable ally but increasingly expects Europeans to carry more responsibility. Cyber operations, disinformation and political interference cross borders without armies, while economic relationships are increasingly examined for strategic dependence.

Keeping Europe European is no longer only an internal project.
The environment around Europe can determine how much freedom Europe retains to choose its own future.

Russia - The Immediate Challenge

Russia's invasion of Ukraine made the military threat unmistakable: borders, political orientation and security can still be challenged by force. The confrontation also includes cyber operations, sabotage, intelligence and influence activity, while energy dependence showed how commercial relationships can acquire strategic consequences.

The question is larger than whether Russia will attack an EU or NATO country. It is whether Europe can maintain an environment in which no outside power can determine European choices through force, intimidation or disruption.

European direction: defense spending UP | NATO reinforcement UP | Ukraine support UP | Russian energy dependence DOWN | cyber/infrastructure protection UP

America - From Protector to Partner?

America belongs here, but not in Russia's threat category. For eight decades U.S. power has been one of the principal conditions enabling the European model to flourish, and NATO still relies heavily on American capabilities. The vulnerability is dependency: Europe cannot completely control its protective environment if decisive capabilities depend on political choices made elsewhere.

The objective need not be replacing America. It is becoming strong enough for the transatlantic relationship to move from European dependence toward a more balanced partnership - strengthening NATO by making Europe a more capable ally.

China - Dependence Without Illusions

China presents a different problem: scale and dependence. Europe benefits enormously from trade with China, but concentrated dependence in critical minerals, batteries, solar technology, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and other strategic sectors can become leverage.

Cooperate where we can.
Compete where we must.
Avoid dependencies that allow somebody else to determine our choices.

This is economic policy becoming protection of political autonomy.

The Threat That Does Not Cross the Border

A fabricated story enters a social feed. A political organization receives covert support. A cyberattack interrupts a hospital or electricity network. A strategic company is pressured by a foreign government. Artificial intelligence makes manipulation cheaper and more convincing. Open societies are exposed precisely because free speech, political competition, information exchange and association are things we value.

Europe therefore faces a difficult requirement: protect openness without destroying openness.

The World We Want Entering

Environment	What it means for Europe
Rules recover	Strong transatlantic cooperation; Russia contained; China competes within manageable rules.
Competitive coexistence	Major powers cooperate selectively while protecting strategic interests.
Power politics returns	Military strength, economic coercion and spheres of influence increasingly determine outcomes.

Europe cannot choose which emerges. It can choose how vulnerable it will be in each.
Stronger capacity is therefore insurance against uncertainty: somewhat costly in a benign world, increasingly valuable in a competitive one, and potentially essential in a hard-power environment.

From Dependence Toward Capacity

Vulnerability	European response
Military dependence	More defense spending, capability and production
Russian aggression	Ukraine support, NATO reinforcement, sanctions
Energy dependence	Diversification, renewables, infrastructure
Economic coercion	Trade defense and anti-coercion instruments
Critical supply chains	De-risking and strategic capacity
Cyberattack	Cybersecurity and infrastructure resilience
Foreign interference	Election and information safeguards
Technology dependence	Digital, semiconductor and AI capacity
Diplomatic fragmentation	Greater coordination of external policy

This is not yet one coherent grand strategy. National interests diverge, defense remains heavily dependent on the United States, and resilience competes with affordability and openness. But the direction is visible: Europe is beginning to apply externally the protective logic it developed internally.

Internally, freedom requires rules that constrain power.
Externally, freedom requires enough capacity that somebody else's power cannot make our choices for us.

Responsible Care - At European Level

European responsibility cannot mean governments simply doing more.
Protection has costs and trade-offs. Defense must be paid for. Reducing dependencies can make things more expensive. Energy security may require unwanted infrastructure. Strategic capacity may require national compromise. Alliances require Europe itself to be reliable.

Responsible care	What it means
Know what we protect	Freedom, rights, security and our ability to choose
Recognize real vulnerabilities	Neither dismiss threats nor inflate every disagreement
Accept reasonable costs	Security, resilience and independence are not free
Demand competent action	More European power matters only if it produces capability
Remain critical	Protection must not become an excuse for abandoning the values protected

We cannot Keep Europe European by becoming what we oppose.

Keeping Europe European

For decades Europe improved life inside a protective environment while others carried much of the burden of securing the environment around it. That period appears to be ending. The answer is not a fortress Europe or a new power seeking domination. It is enough strength, resilience and collective capacity to preserve European choice.

External pressure is only half the problem. A system can be strong against outsiders and still weaken from within. Citizens can lose trust, political movements can challenge restraints, solidarity can fracture, and democratic majorities can begin suspending protections they still claim to support.
Those dangers lead to the final piece: the threat from within.

APPENDIX:

This is the observed*) EUROPEAN CITIZENS Values Package:

• We value human dignity - every person remains a person of worth.
• We value being free to live our own lives.
• We value having an equal say in how we are governed.
• We value being equal before the law.
• We value being protected against arbitrary power.
• We value helping each other when help is needed.
• We value being free to be different.
• We value honesty and sufficient trust to deal with one another.
• We value solving our differences through rules, dialogue and compromise.
• We require our differences and conflicts to be resolved peacefully.

https://europe-is-us.blogspot.com/2026/08/we-are-europe-our-european-values.html