Why Deterrence Alone Is Not Enough — And What Europe Could Start Doing Tomorrow
In
Beyond Russky Mir [1], I argued that Europe needs an Eastern Strategy
that goes beyond deterrence.
Europe
has become increasingly capable of defending itself. It is strengthening its
military capabilities, supporting Ukraine, reducing vulnerabilities and
developing greater strategic autonomy. These efforts are necessary and likely
to remain necessary for years to come.
But
deterrence is not a destination.
A
long-term strategy requires a vision of the future Europe hopes eventually to
build.
The
question therefore becomes practical:
If Europe seeks a future beyond confrontation, how should it communicate
that future?
The
answer matters because Europe today possesses military instruments, economic
instruments and diplomatic instruments.
What it largely lacks is a citizen-facing strategy toward Russia itself.
Not
propaganda. Not information warfare. Not regime-change messaging.
A long-term strategy of confidence.
The Missing Capability
Much of Europe’s
communication toward Russia is indirect.
Europe speaks to governments, diplomats, allies, itself…
Far less effort is
devoted to speaking directly to Russian citizens about the future Europe hopes
one day to build. This is a strategic gap.
Because the
challenge identified in Beyond Russky Mir is not merely military or
geopolitical. It is also psychological.
Russky Mir derives
much of its strength from providing confidence. Confidence that Russia matters.
Confidence that Russia has a future. Confidence that Russia remains a great
civilization.
If Europe hopes to
contribute to a future in which Russian confidence no longer depends upon
Russian confidence by dominance, it must eventually learn to communicate
directly with the people whose confidence is at stake.
What Europe Seeks
Any communication
strategy must begin with clarity about objectives.
- A secure Europe.
- A sovereign Ukraine.
- A Russia that is respected but
not feared.
- Stable relations between East
and West.
- A future in which cooperation
becomes possible without coercion.
These goals are not
contradictory. Indeed, they may ultimately depend upon one another. A confident
Russia is more likely to coexist peacefully with its neighbors than an anxious
Russia.
A sovereign Ukraine is
more likely to become a bridge between worlds than a battlefield between them.
And a secure Europe is
more likely to pursue long-term reconciliation than a Europe preoccupied by
insecurity.
What Europe Does Not Seek
Just as
important is clarity about what Europe does not seek.
- Europe does not seek Russia’s
humiliation.
- Europe does not seek Russia’s
disintegration.
- Europe does not seek the
destruction of Russian culture.
- Europe does not seek the
permanent exclusion of Russia from the European future.
These
statements do not require abandoning support for Ukraine.
They do not require accepting spheres of influence.
They do not require weakening deterrence.
They simply
clarify an important distinction:
- Europe’s concern is not Russia.
- Europe’s concern is coercion.
- Europe’s concern is not Russian
civilization.
- Europe’s concern is domination
over sovereign neighbors.
The distinction
is strategically important because it separates opposition to policies from
opposition to a people.
Four Messages Europe Should Repeat
If
Europe were to adopt a long-term strategy of confidence, four messages should
appear again and again. Not once. Not during crises. But consistently over
years and decades.
Europe does not
seek Russia’s humiliation.
Europe does not
seek Russia’s disintegration.
Europe recognizes
Russia as a great civilization.
Europe believes
Russian greatness does not require domination of others.
These four statements form a coherent whole. Together they communicate a simple proposition:
Russia can remain
fully Russia without controlling its neighbors.
That idea may
ultimately prove more important than any specific diplomatic initiative.
A Communication Calendar
Strategic
communication works best when attached to meaningful occasions.
Russia already
possesses several dates that could serve as natural opportunities for Europe to
communicate directly with Russian citizens.
Russia Day
Theme: Russia’s
Future
A European message focused on confidence, prosperity and the role Russia can
play in the twenty-first century.
Pushkin Day
Theme: Russian
Culture and Civilization
A European message emphasizing literature, science, culture and Russia’s
enduring contribution to world civilization.
Victory Day
Theme: Sacrifice,
Memory and Peace
A European message recognizing the immense sacrifices of the Soviet peoples
during the Second World War while emphasizing that remembrance should
strengthen peace rather than perpetuate confrontation.
Day of Slavic Writing and
Culture
Theme: The
Future of Slavic Cooperation
A European message exploring the possibility of a future in which Slavic
peoples cooperate freely rather than through hierarchy.
New
Year
Practical Formats
What might this look
like in practice?
The most obvious option
would be addresses by the President of the European Commission
directed explicitly to Russian citizens. Special Occasions, Annual.
Not to the Kremlin. Not to the Duma. Not to diplomats.
To Russian citizens.
The purpose would not
be negotiation. It would be communication.
A second possibility
would be short Russian-language video messages released on major
cultural or historical occasions.
A third would be open
letters directed toward students, scientists, writers, artists and other
civic communities.
A fourth would be the
publication of a European Eastern Settlement Declaration.
Not a peace plan. Not a negotiation document.
A statement of the future principles Europe hopes eventually to see emerge:
- Sovereignty is non-negotiable.
- Security must be mutual.
- Deterrence is a means, not a
destination.
- Civilizations need not be
empires.
- Participation in future
frameworks of cooperation must be voluntary.
What Such A Message
Might Look Like
Imagine
a future Russia Day message.
Not a message of concession. Not a message of accusation.
A message of confidence.
The objective is not immediate persuasion.
The objective is long-term strategic communication.
Speaking To The Future
Europe has spent
years explaining what it opposes. It should now begin explaining what it hopes
one day to build. Deterrence can protect Europe. Sanctions can impose costs. Diplomacy
can manage crises.
But only a vision
can shape the future.
If Europe truly
believes a future exists beyond Russky Mir, it must eventually learn to speak
not only to governments, but also to the citizens who will one day inherit that
future.
A strategy of
confidence will not replace deterrence. Nor should it.
But it may become an essential complement to it.
Because lasting peace is rarely built on fear alone.
It is built when
people become confident enough to imagine something better.
No comments:
Post a Comment