Monthly GOP RSI Report — May 15, 2026

Reporting Date: May 15, 2026, 10:00 (Europe/Amsterdam)
Monitoring Window: Apr 16 – May 14, 2026

RSI Zone Legend (Standardized)

• Normal: <50
• Moderate: 50–60
• Elevated: 60–70
• High Stress: >70

---

I. Data Review

• Total GOP Representatives: 222
• Representatives Analyzed: 219 (98.6%)
• Excluded due to data gaps: 3 (1.4%)
• Representatives with ≥1 event: 171 (78.1%)
• Representatives with 0 events (confirmed coverage): 48 (21.9%)

Event Volume

• Total Events Logged: 489
• Average Events per Active Rep: 2.9

Event Distribution by Index

Index	Total Events	% of GOP Reps Affected	Blue District %	Red District %
THSI	79	35.6%	42%	31%
Confrontation Index	114	51.4%	46%	53%
Public Defection Statements	43	19.4%	28%	16%
Retirement / Primary Signals	61	27.5%	33%	25%
Polling & Sentiment Shifts	88	39.6%	44%	37%

---

II. RSI Index Levels (May Reporting)

Overall National RSI: 58

Blue-District GOP RSI: 69
Red-District GOP RSI: 49

Month-to-Month Comparison

Month	Blue District RSI	Red District RSI	National RSI
February	66	45	51
March	64	46	53
April	66	47	55
May	69	49	58

RSI Trend

RSI Trend
Feb 51 → Mar 53 → Apr 55 → May 58

Interpretation:

• Blue-district stress has now moved deeper into the Elevated zone.
• Red-district stress remains below escalation thresholds but continues gradual upward drift.
• National RSI approaches the Confirmed Storm threshold defined in Annex B.

Highest State-Level Stress: AZ, GA, FL, NC, TX
Lowest State-Level Stress: WY, ND, SD, WV

---

III. Interpretation & Key Highlights

• Town hall stress intensified sharply in several suburban and competitive districts.
• Confrontation events exceeded 50% representative exposure for the first time in the reporting cycle.
• Public defection statements increased, especially among representatives in electorally mixed districts.
• Primary positioning behavior accelerated, suggesting rising concern over both general-election and intra-party vulnerabilities.
• Blue-district GOP representatives continue to function as the leading indicator of systemic constituency stress.

---

IV. Quality & Validation Notes

• Median Event Lag: 3.5 days
• P90 Lag: 5.4 days
• Cross-Index Correlation: 0.65–0.74

Invalidations

• No state-level invalidations
• 3 representatives excluded due to temporary local reporting discontinuities

Overall Validation Status: ✅ Valid — full operational compliance maintained.

---

V. Event Composition Over Time

February (t₂)

• Stress-relevant: ~29%
• High-impact: ~4.5%

March (t₃)

• Stress-relevant: ~31%
• High-impact: ~5.1%

April (t₄)

• Stress-relevant: ~33%
• High-impact: ~5.8%

May (t₅)

• Stress-relevant: ~37%
• High-impact: ~6.2%

Interpretation:

• April’s re-escalation has continued into May.
• Both stress-relevant and high-impact shares now exceed the Emerging Storm thresholds.
• May marks the first appearance of a potential multi-cycle escalation structure.

---

VI. Contextual Interpretation (Pattern Level)

Unlike the January spike, the April→May sequence now shows:

• Consecutive upward movement in RSI values
• Sustained growth in stress-relevant event share
• Expansion of confrontation exposure across multiple states

This suggests the monitoring environment may be transitioning from:

episodic volatility → structured escalation

However:

• Confirmed Storm classification is not yet assigned nationally, because the persistence requirement (≥2 elevated cycles above threshold) remains incomplete.
• Arizona and Georgia now meet conditions for state-level Emerging Storm classification.

---

VII. Storm Area Classification 

Emerging Storm Zones

• Arizona
• Georgia
• Florida

Watch Zones

• North Carolina
• Texas
• Midwest suburban districts

National Status

✅ Emerging Storm criteria approached but not yet formally confirmed nationally

---

VIII. Forward Look

Primary Analytical Question for June:
Will the April→May escalation pattern consolidate into a sustained pre-midterm stress cycle?

Monitoring Priorities

• Persistence of elevated THSI exposure
• Spread of confrontation signals into additional red districts
• Growth of public defection behavior
• Expansion of state-level Emerging Storm classifications

---