FUTURE PROOFING EU ENLARGEMENT: FROM GUARDRAILS TO PREVENTION - ESSENTIAL FOR UNION STABILITY

Hungary as a cautionary tale, and 

A blueprint for smarter accession

Summary

·     The EU has shifted toward gradual, reversible integration and tougher rule of law conditionality, but these remain largely ex-post guardrails. [2][3][4][5]

·     Hungary’s trajectory illustrates the costs of relying on Article 7, budget freezes, and slow litigation, and how a single member can use veto leverage. [7][8][9][12]

·     Next enlargement needs riskprevention: a Societal Resilience & Pluralism Gate, staged and snap backable market access, influence arrives last, and entrenched independent gatekeepers - doable without Treaty change. [2][4][5][14][15]

·     Make political culture resilience a precondition for each benefit stage, with automatic snap backs on backsliding.

Introduction: Empowering the Union

by preventing risks, not just managing them

The EU’s enlargement playbook balances geopolitics with the Copenhagen criteria, assuming that adoption of the acquis will lock in democratic standards over time. [1]
Hungary’s post accession record shows that formal compliance at entry does not guarantee durable pluralism. Years of Article 7 hearings, budget conditionality, and court actions have been costly and slow, while veto threats have raised the EU’s transaction costs on major files (e.g., the Ukraine Facility). [7][8][9][12]
Thesis: Complement guardrails with risk prevention before and during accession, screening for societal and institutional resilience to illiberal drift and linking benefits to track record, not just formal steps.

Hungary as the problem statement

·     Article 7(1) TEU against Hungary has remained at the preventive stage for years, underlining escalation difficulties. [9]

·     Budget conditionality: Council suspended ~€6.3bn (Dec 2022); the Commission later enabled claims of up to ~€10.2bn after judicial reforms (Dec 2023), while other funds remained frozen. [7][8]

·     Litigation and infringement: CJEU upheld the rule of law conditionality regulation (Feb 2022); the Commission escalated action against the “sovereignty/foreign influence” law in 2024–25. [6][10][11]

·     Veto costs: Leaders navigated Hungary’s threats to secure the €50bn Ukraine Facility (Feb 2024). [12]

·     Monitoring: The 2025 Rule of Law Report (HU) still flags deficits—formal fixes ¹ cultural resilience. [16]

What the EU already does on prevention (baseline)

·     Copenhagen criteria remain the legal foundation (democracy, rule of law, human rights, market economy, capacity to adopt the acquis). [1]

·     The 2020 revised enlargement methodology adds “fundamentals first,” stronger conditionality, and reversibility. [2][3]

·     The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans (2023) pilots gradual single market access before membership. [4]

·     The European Council (Dec 2023) endorsed gradual, reversible, merit based integration during accession. [5]

·     The Rule of Law Reports monitor justice, anti corruption, media pluralism, and checks & balances - inputs for early risk screening. [16]

From Guardrails to Prevention: 

What to add—and how

1)     Societal Resilience & Pluralism Gate (prenegotiation)

Precondition cluster opening on a two year track record for: media pluralism/regulator independence; judicial governance; high level anti corruption enforcement; civic space protections; election integrity. Use Rule of Law indicators; publish baselines and targets. [2][16]

2)     Staged, earned, and snap backable access

Full ladder (goods ® services ® capital ® people) encoded via association/DCFTA add ons with guillotine clauses; non compliance narrows access automatically. Funds (IPA III/Growth Plan) linked to audited super milestones with escrow. Public traffic light dashboards. [4][5][14][15]

3)     Influence arrives last

Keep candidates outside Council votes until the final stage; grant observer/consultative seats in working parties only after audited chapter implementation. [5][14]

4)     Entrench independent gatekeepers

Before wider market access, entrench judicial councils, anti corruption bodies, and media regulators with budgetary and appointment safeguards; verify de facto independence with case statistics and regulator rulings. [16]

5)     Societal investment conditionality

Earmark pre-accession envelopes for civic resilience programmes (media literacy, judicial training, PSB standards, watchdog capacity) with outcome KPIs. [4]

 

Illustrative dashboard: Societal Resilience metrics

 

Reduced access options during accession (reversible & credible)

 

Option	What candidates get	What the EU gets	Legal path
Single-Market access by stage	Early, conditional access (start with goods)	Snap-back leverage and clear reform incentives	Association/DCFTA add-ons + Growth Plan [4][14] (Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood)
Budget-for-Reform contracts	Larger/faster tranches	Hard conditionality with escrowed payouts	IPA III/Growth Plan templates [4] (Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood)
Observer status in Council WPs	Voice once chapters are implemented & audited	Avoids premature voting power	Negotiating frameworks [5][14] (Consilium)
Reversibility clauses	Predictable ladder	Automatic snap-backs on backsliding	2020 methodology operationalisation [2] (EUR-Lex)

 

Conclusion

Europe’s geopolitical moment demands wider and stronger, but only if the Union remains governable and legitimate. Hungary shows that relying on post-hoc guardrails imposes heavy costs. The fix is not to close the door on candidates but to front load resilience: make societal pluralism, independent gatekeepers, and track recorded compliance the price of entry to each benefit stage. So enlargement becomes a stability multiplier - not a gamble.

References

[1]  European Council. “Copenhagen European Council—Conclusions.” June 21–22, 1993.

[2]  European Commission. “Enhancing the Accession Process: A Credible EU Perspective for the Western Balkans.” COM(2020) 57 final, February 5, 2020.

[3]  European Commission. “2020 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy.”

[4]  European Commission. “Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.” 2023.

[5]  European Council. “Conclusions.” December 14–15, 2023 (gradual, reversible, merit based integration).

[6]  Court of Justice of the European Union. Cases C 156/21 and C 157/21, Judgment of 16 February 2022 (Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation).

[7]  Council of the EU. Press release, December 12, 2022 (suspension of ~€6.3bn cohesion commitments for Hungary).

[8]  European Commission. Press release, December 13, 2023 (assessment enabling up to €10.2bn in cohesion reimbursements; other funds remain blocked).

[9]  Council of the EU. Article 7(1) TEU—Hungary: procedure timeline and hearings (ongoing since 2018).

[10]  Reuters. “EU acts over Hungary ‘sovereignty’ law,” May 23, 2024 (reasoned opinion).

[11]  European Commission. “Referral of Hungary’s sovereignty law to the CJEU,” October 2, 2024.

[12]  Associated Press. “EU leaders agree €50bn Ukraine Facility,” February 2024.

[14]  CEPS. “Template 2.0 for Staged Accession to the EU,” 2023.

[15]  Bruegel. “Ukraine’s staged integration: a practical roadmap,” 2024.

[16]  European Commission. “2025 Rule of Law Report—Hungary Country Chapter.”